Back-to-School Programme: Retention Study
Whether removing the cost cliff at the start of term keeps children in school for the whole year — measured against attendance records, not distribution counts.
Previous school supplies drives measured success by items distributed. This study measured whether the children who received them were still attending in June.
Method
Attendance registers were collected from participating head teachers in Oke Arungbo at three points in the 2024/25 session. 640 pupils received support at enrolment; the study tracked the same cohort through to the end of the academic year.
Results
Retention through the full session was substantially higher than the pattern head teachers described for previous years, when drop-off concentrated after the first term. Supported pupils largely remained enrolled through to June.
The families who still lost children to drop-out were, in almost every case, those facing a second shock during the year — illness, displacement, or loss of a household earner. Start-of-term support does not reach that.
Implication
A contingency fund for mid-session emergencies would likely do more for retention than expanding the enrolment drive. This is being costed for the 2026/27 session.
